Daily high attribution, non-overlap sessions
Median session range ratio
Strongest pair: Asia->London
Share of weekly highs printed Monday
Key findings at a glance
1 · Asia sets the day's extremes
The Asia session creates the daily high 43% of the time and the low 38% - and when any session sets the extreme, it usually happens in that session's first hour.
Watch session opens (00, 08, 16 UTC) for day-range formation.
2 · Prior session levels get swept ~half the time
Each session takes out the previous session's high or low roughly 42-52% of the time; both sides together only 8-13%. Levels are zones to trade through, not walls.
Expect retests of the prior session's high/low - but not necessarily a full double sweep.
3 · Session ranges are near parity, not 2x
London is only ~7% wider than Asia (1.07x), NY ≈ Asia (0.99x), NY ≈ 0.90x London. The "London is twice Asia" belief comes from overlapping definitions.
Size each session with its own history, not folklore ratios.
4 · Volatility persists session to session
Today's session range predicts tomorrow's: ρ ≈ 0.45-0.47 across all handoffs, and your range-ratio idea (Asia vs its own 30-session mean → London) hits ρ ≈ 0.35.
A big session hands off to a big session - plan risk accordingly.
5 · ROC predicts size, not direction
Opening-gap z and 20-day MA z predict session/day range (ρ ≈ 0.21-0.35) but direction is a coin flip (~49%). Magnitude yes, sign no.
Use momentum for expected range sizing; get direction elsewhere.
6 · Monday defines the week
Monday prints 31.4% of weekly highs and 23.1% of weekly lows; Mon-Wed accounts for 55% of weekly highs. Early-week action dominates.
The weekly framework is usually set by Wednesday.
H1
H1: Daily Extreme Maker
Compares high and low attribution against a uniform 33.3% baseline.
In plain English
The Asia session (00-08 UTC) creates the day's high 43.4% of the time and the low 37.8% - well above the 33.3% expected if all three sessions were equal. Strikingly, when a session does set the day's extreme, it almost always happens in the very first hour of that session's open: the three tall bars sit exactly at hours 0, 8 and 16 UTC.
Takeaway: Watch the first hour of each session - that's when the day's high or low is most likely to be printed.
H2
H2: Adjacent Session Sweeps
Shows high, low, and double-sweep rates for each adjacent session handoff.
In plain English
A "sweep" means the next session breaks through the previous session's high or low. Asia→London sweeps London's high 47.1% of the time and low 52.2%; London→NY 41.8%/46.7%; NY→Asia 46.4%/45.6%. Both extremes being swept in one session is rarer (8-13%). Day-to-day, about 44% of highs and 48% of lows get taken out.
Takeaway: Previous session highs and lows are real battlegrounds - they get tested and broken roughly half the time, so treat them as zones, not walls.
H3
H3: Relative Session Ranges
Uses medians plus interquartile bands to avoid implying unavailable raw distributions.
In plain English
With equal 8-hour blocks, London's typical range is only ~7% larger than Asia's (median ratio 1.07), NY is nearly identical to Asia (0.99), and NY is ~10% smaller than London (0.90). The popular idea that London is 2x Asia comes from overlapping FX-style definitions - with clean non-overlapping sessions the sizes are remarkably similar.
Takeaway: Don't assume London dwarfs Asia: on equal footing, session ranges are close to parity - differences are modest, not multiples.
H4
H4: Range Persistence
Ranks adjacent-pair Spearman correlations for prior versus next session range z-scores.
In plain English
Volatility strongly persists from one session to the next: Asia's range predicts London's with ρ=0.47, London→NY 0.46, NY→next Asia 0.45 (all highly significant). Your original idea also holds - today's Asia range vs its own 30-session average predicts tomorrow's London range with ρ≈0.35. A big session tends to be followed by another big session.
Takeaway: Size your risk for the next session off the current session's range: unusually large sessions usually hand off to unusually large ones.
H5
H5: Magnitude Predictors
Summarizes the predictive-magnitude correlations present in the results file.
In plain English
Rate-of-change signals predict how far price will move, not which way. A session's opening gap (z-scored) correlates ρ≈0.21 with its own range; today's close vs the 20-day MA correlates ρ≈0.35 with tomorrow's range. Direction prediction sits at ~49% - a coin flip. ROC tells you the size of the expected move, nothing about its sign.
Takeaway: Use ROC/momentum signals to size expected range for the session or day ahead - then rely on other tools for direction, because ROC has none.
H6
H6: Weekday Extremes
Shows whether weekly highs and lows concentrate early or late in the UTC week.
In plain English
Monday prints the week's high 31.4% of the time (vs 14.3% expected) and the week's low 23.1%. The first three days (Mon-Wed) account for 55.1% of weekly highs and 48.8% of weekly lows. The weekend still matters - Sat/Sun combined set 25.9% of highs and 26.6% of lows - but early week action dominates.
Takeaway: The week's directional framework is usually decided by Wednesday - Monday's move in particular often defines the week.
H8
H8: Volume Share
Compares median and mean daily-volume share across the three sessions.
In plain English
London is the volume leader: median 36.9% of each day's notional trades during its 8 hours (mean 37.8%), versus Asia 29.3% and NY 29.2%. Volume also predicts range: session volume z-score vs next session range z ρ≈0.43 (SIG***) - high-volume sessions beget wide next sessions, mirroring the H4 persistence finding.
Takeaway: London carries the most flow - when volume spikes in any session, expect an outsized range in the next one.
H9
H9: Open Location
Pairs open-location direction rates with the median range-z response.
In plain English
Opening above the prior day's high, inside it, or below the prior low gives almost no directional edge: continuation rates are 47.9% / 48.7% / 49.3% - effectively coin flips. But open location does matter for range: opens outside the prior day's range (above high / below low) produce larger-than-normal days (median range z near 0 vs -0.38 inside), consistent with gap-extension behavior.
Takeaway: Don't chase gaps for direction - but a gap open signals a wider-than-normal day, so adjust expectations (and stops) accordingly.
Reading Notes
Charts use aggregate statistics from the committed result JSON. No synthetic observations are drawn. Session definitions are computed in the analysis pipeline; the dashboard presents the current result file without re-estimating the underlying study.